Can Badenoch survive spring regicide?  

“To challenge, to move or to merge?” These are the three options that Kemi Badenoch has for survival, argues Per Capita’s Charlie Windle. To survive spring regicide in a famously fickle position in the party, Badenoch must beat Farage at his own game – a strategy that could radically change the British political landscape.

The Tories appear unable to capitalise on Labour’s faltering form, with many applying pressure from the inside, pushing for Kemi Badenoch’s removal after just six months in charge. To survive as the leader of the UK’s most demanding party, she must make clear decisions about where she wants to move the party. If she moves right, she can challenge Reform UK for the conservative vote, but she will need to outperform Farage. A move towards the centre might give her more opportunity to capitalise on the recent mistakes of the PM, but she will need to up her game at PMQs for this to be an option. The third option is one she has explicitly ruled out but remains a possibility before 2029: a merger with Reform.  

Things are not going well for Keir Starmer. Donald Trump’s ‘liberation day’ hit the UK harder than the PM was initially willing to admit, although his speech on Monday (7/4) showed a willingness to admit that he was unprepared for how hard the automotive industry would be hit. His chancellor, Rachel Reeves, may have to break her manifesto promises and fiscal rules if she wants to survive until the next budget, with government borrowing £11.6bn higher than the last financial year and taxes increasingly not matching costs. Her £10bn headroom, already too little for a budget of £1.2tn, has allegedly disappeared entirely, and a new budget is predicted to come much sooner than the October due date. The Spring Statement revealed that she lacks a coherent financial plan, and her reluctance to break her own, obsessively strict fiscal rules is alarming rather than reassuring.  

In February, Keir Starmer lost a good friend when Anneliese Dodds, International Development Minister, resigned after the government announced that it was cutting international aid from 0.5% of gross national income to 0.3% by 2027, funding a hike in defence spending. Undoubtably a blow to the wisdom of Starmer’s cabinet, the loss of Dodds was entirely avoidable and marked a significant failure of negotiation on the part of the PM.  

As I have written previously, Starmer’s appeasement of Trump is riddled with risks and puts the UK in a precarious international position, endangering our relationship with key allies like Canada and the EU. If Trump were to turn on Starmer (it is difficult to picture what this would look like, besides a refusal to come to the table to discuss a trade deal of any kind), it would be a ritual of international humiliation and would gravely damage the PM’s position at home. His summit of the ‘coalition of the willing’ has placed him in a position of de facto leadership for ensuring the safety and preservation of Ukraine, a strategically dangerous manoeuvre which could backfire if Trump gets involved.  

All of this goes to show that Keir Starmer’s position is precarious, and a successful move from the Tories could destabilise parliament and throw Starmer’s MPs into a turmoil of no-confidence. Badenoch, then, is poised to make her big play – but what will it be?  

The Tory leader may choose to move to the right of the political spectrum, a move which would certainly suit her own political preferences and ideologies. Her recent actions have shown that perhaps she is already making this move, a tactical shift which is supported by some 51% of Conservative party members.  

Her recent defence of Israel denying entry to two Labour MPs, Abtisam Mohamed and Yuan Yang, certainly appears to have been a move to the right, promoting the sovereignty of Israel and its rights to decide who enters the country. Whilst being criticised by David Lammy, the Foreign Secretary, as “disgraceful”, Badenoch appears to have succeeded in her goal of catching the eye of the right with her comments. Israel claimed that the two MPs, who set out to witness the situation in the occupied West Bank and report back to parliament with their findings, were planning to spread hate, and that no officials within Israel had been informed that their delegation was coming. This has the potential to be highly embarrassing for Starmer, as a close ally of the UK is clearly not willing to accept his representatives on their soil. Badenoch used this opportunity to launch a wider offensive against Labour, claiming that they should focus on home crises, rather than proposing airports in Kashmir and promoting Hamas propaganda in parliament.  

In another appeal to the right, Badenoch recently attended the Alliance for Responsible Citizenship Conference in London, a meeting of conservative thinkers, politicians and businesspeople organised by the Alliance for Responsible Citizenship (ARC), backed by Paul Marshall, co-owner of GB News. The ARC was co-founded by Jordan Peterson, a Canadian popular right-wing psychologist, who interviewed Nigel Farage at the same conference a day later. Badenoch argued for the risk to ‘western civilisation’ if the Tory party were to fail globally. This was a clear attempt to manoeuvre the Conservatives to the front of a new wave of conservatism, attacking left-wing progressivism as a ‘real poison’ in almost Trump-like rhetoric.  

Kemi has also chosen to ditch cross-party commitment to net zero in the UK by 2050, calling the target ‘impossible’, despite the law legally committing the UK to the cause being passed by Tory PM Theresa May. This appears to be a move to look more like Reform UK, with Farage’s part running on an explicitly anti-net zero platform since its foundation. Badenoch has received backlash from across the political spectrum, including members of her own party. Sam Hall, head of the Conservative Environment Network, which has the support of over 50 Tory MPs, called the action a ‘mistake’ and warned Badenoch not to ‘undermine the significant environmental legacy of successive Conservative governments’.  

If Badenoch were to opt for this strategical option, she would need to improve her image in the media, including making more public appearances and enhancing her performances at Prime Minister’s Questions. Giles Coren, a close friend of Badenoch, has recently claimed that Kemi is receiving coaching from David Cameron, since she did not go to Oxford or Cambridge, where students become familiar with parliament-style debate in their respective Unions. Coren said that Badenoch “gabbles a bit” and is “not doing terribly well”, being unfamiliar with the tricks of the trade, after attending the Universities of Sussex and Birkbeck.  

Badenoch is being urged to overhaul her questioning style and prepare more topics with which to assault Starmer at the dispatch box. She is currently being outshined by opponents like Ed Davey and, perhaps most importantly, Nigel Farage, and it is clear that she needs more wise heads around her experienced in PMQs spats. The advice of Cameron could be the first step towards this, but she will likely need more to master her approach to the dispatch box.  

Badenoch’s second option, to move towards the centre, would certainly step on some red toes, and would not suit Badenoch’s own ideologies. But, with Starmer losing his grip on his closest circle and multiple Labour cabinet members blundering, it could be the correct time to attempt a heist of the PM’s voters. This would likely be unpopular with Conservative party members, with only 34% supporting such a move in August 2024, but it would give the Tories an opportunity to put pressure on the blundering Starmer cabinet. This would mean sacrificing voters to Reform, and it seems unlikely, at least whilst Badenoch is in charge.  

A merger with Reform, or an agreement of any kind, would seem highly improbable, as it would mean the end of the Tory party as we know it, and would see Badenoch accept defeat to Farage. Badenoch has publicly denied that a merger is being considered, claiming that she was doing a “serious job” to offset the influence of Farage’s public persona. 

Sir Edward Leigh, the Father of the House of Commons and the longest-standing current Tory MP, claimed that there was a 70% chance of a merger in a recent interview with Chris Hope, undermining Badenoch’s certainty that there was no chance of any agreement with Farage’s party. He said that this could result in the Tories stepping down in 100 seats, allowing Reform to challenge Labour without splitting the votes on the right of the spectrum. He claimed that a third of the 121 Tory MPs supported such a move, with a strong core of supporters formed around Robert Jenrick.  

Leigh claimed that Badenoch risks allowing Reform to grow out of her control, insisting on treating them like a “blip”, rather than a constant political force. Their polling, one point behind the Labour party on 23, suggests that they will continue to be a threat until the 2029 General Election. He commented that it is likely that the Tories are slaughtered in the May elections, and it is clear that this could amplify calls for Badenoch’s removal.  

So, what is the Tory leader to do? Her party is famous for its impatience with its leaders, and pressure is growing for a firm immigration policy, a clear orientation of the party’s direction, and a stronger showing at PMQs. Her position is precarious, and it seems increasingly unlikely that her right-wing politics are compatible with the rise of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK. Beating Farage on his own patch could be the only alternative to giving in to a merger, which would see the Tories’ stamp on the political map changed forever. Could we see ‘Conservative Reform’ or ‘Reform-Conservative UK’? If we do, I hope they do not hire me to name it.  

Cover image from Labour ads are claiming there is no difference between Reform UK and the Tories. Credit: Labour Party/X.